Who is expected to catch corona…. an interesting analysis

WHAT IT TAKES TO INFECT
To successfully infect you, the virus needs a dose of: ~1000 viral particles (vp)
The typical environmental spread of activities:
Breath: ~20 vp/minute
Speaking: ~200 vp/minute
Cough: ~200 million vp (enough of these may remain in air for hours in a poorly ventilated environment)
Sneeze: ~200 million vp
FORMULA
Successful infection = Exposure to Virus * Time
SCENARIOS
* Being in vicinity of someone (with 6 ft distancing): Low risk if limit to less than 45 minutes
* Talking to someone face to face (with mask): Low risk if limit to less than 4 minutes
* Someone passing you walking/jogging/cycling: Low risk
* Well-ventilated spaces, with distancing: Low risk (limit duration)
* Grocery shopping: Medium risk (can reduce to low by limiting time and following hygiene)
* Indoor spaces: High risk
* Public Bathrooms/Common areas: High fomite/surface transfer risk
* Restaurants: High risk (can reduce to Medium risk by sitting outdoors with distancing and surface touch awareness)
* Workplaces/Schools (even with social distancing): Very high risk, including high fomite transfer risk
* Parties/Weddings: Very high risk
* Business networking/conferences: Very high risk
* Arenas/Concerts/Cinemas: Very high risk

RISK FACTORS
The bottom line factors you can use to calculate your risk are:
– indoors vs outdoors
– narrow spaces vs large, ventilated spaces
– high people density vs low density
– longer exposure vs brief exposure
The risks will be higher for former scenarios.

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